Big Ideas: Summary of Forces and Strategies

 

The Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) plans to use exploratory scenario planning when developing Destination 2050, its next long-range transportation plan. Exploratory scenario planning processes envision multiple possible futures (or scenarios) to assess how to best prepare for uncertainties while pursuing an overarching vision.1 MPO staff conducted the Informing the Big ideas Behind the MPO’s Scenario Planning Process project in 2021 to gather stakeholder input for scenario planning. During a series of virtual focus groups, participants discussed driving forces they expect to shape the future and strategies that could respond to these forces. More details about the Big Ideas discussions are available in the MPO’s ArcGIS StoryMap titled Big Ideas: Uncertainties, Possibilities, and Strategies for Greater Boston’s Transportation Future. MPO staff’s next step is to work with MPO members to process, refine, and add to the information focus group participants provided about driving forces and strategies. The tables in this document can serve as references as MPO staff and members undertake this next step. This work will help MPO staff create potential future scenarios that MPO members can prioritize for analysis.

 

Table 1 describes MPO staff’s synthesis of driving forces mentioned during the focus groups. Driving forces are outside of our direct control, such as changes in society, the environment, or the economy. These forces can lead to likely outcomes (certainties), or unpredictable outcomes (uncertainties).2 These forces are organized by major themes in the table. During the focus groups, participants also shared feedback about the relative importance of various forces in their view and how certain they were that these forces would have an impact. This information is also reflected in the table.

 

Table 1
Big Ideas Focus Group Feedback: Driving Forces

Theme

Force

Level of Importance and Certainty

Notes

Environment

Climate change (including sea level rise, precipitation, higher temperatures, and extreme weather)

Very important, very certain (expected increase in climate change and related effects)

Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.

Environment

Environmental policy action

Very important, mixed perspectives on certainty

null

Technology

Electric vehicle use

Very important, very uncertain

null

Technology

Autonomous vehicle technology

Important, uncertain

null

Technology

Autonomous vehicle use

Important, very uncertain

null

Technology

Autonomous vehicle policies

Very important, uncertain

null

Technology

Smartphone use for transportation access

Very important, very certain (expected use to continue)

null

Technology

Internet support for remote work and services

null

null

Technology

Data availability for transportation management

Important, uncertain

null

Technology

Micromobility use

Certain (expected
increase in use)

null

Technology

Transportation technology for freight delivery

Uncertain

null

Technology

New and emerging transportation technologies

Uncertain

null

Technology

Equitable access to technology

Important

null

Demographics

Aging population

Very important, very certain (expected aging of population)

Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.

Demographics

Migration to Greater Boston

Important, certain (expected increase in migration)

null

Demographics

Demographic diversity

Certain (expected increase in diversity)

null

Demographics

Systemic racism

Very important, certain (expected systemic racism to continue)

null

Economy

Remote work activity

Important, uncertain

Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.

Economy

E-commerce activity

Important, very certain

null

Economy

Automation

null

null

Economy

Energy use by type (renewables or fossil fuels)

Important, mixed perspectives on certainty

null

Economy

Energy policy

Very important, certain (expected support for renewable energy)

null

Economy

Core regional economic sector activity

Important, uncertain

null

Economy

Income inequality

Important, certain (expected increase in income inequality)

Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.

Consumer Preferences

Preference for urban or suburban living*

Very important, uncertain

Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.

Consumer Preferences

Preference for owning personal vehicles

Uncertain

 

Consumer Preferences

Preference for local trips

null

null

Consumer Preferences

Preference for active transportation

Certain (increase in preference for using active transportation)

null

Consumer Preferences

Preference for using transit

Important, uncertain

null

Consumer Preferences

Concerns about public health or exposure risk

Very important, very uncertain

null

Housing and Land Use

Housing demand

Uncertain

null

Housing and Land Use

Housing production

Very important, very uncertain

null

Housing and Land Use

Housing affordability*

Important, certain (expected lack of affordable housing)

Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.

Housing and Land Use

Development density

Uncertain

null

Housing and Land Use

Displacement

Certain (expected displacement from development and investment)

null

Policymaking

Political/partisan conflict

 

Uncertain

null

Policymaking

Bureaucratic fragmentation across government agencies

null

null

Policymaking

Funding for transportation infrastructure Improvements*

Very important, very uncertain

Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.

Policymaking

Focus on equity in policymaking

Certain (expected increase in policy action to address inequities)

null

Source: Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization.


 

Table 2 describes MPO staff’s summary of the range of strategies suggested by focus group participants to address future conditions. These strategies—which include investments, policies, and planning approaches—are generally organized by theme, although for some strategies multiple themes may apply. The table provides additional details for these strategies, where applicable.

 

 

Table 2
Big Ideas Focus Group Feedback: Suggested Strategies

Theme

Strategy

Details

Environment

Manage stormwater.

Establish blue spaces; manage storm drains and sewers; and reduce urban hardscaping.

Environment

Reclaim green space.

Use green space for agricultural production.

Environment

Provide shelter from heat and weather for bicyclists, pedestrians, and transit users.

null

Environment

Support community relocation from climate affected areas.

null

Environment

Move people using water transportation.

null

Environment

Promote use of hybrid and electric cars.

null

Environment

Electrify transit vehicles and infrastructure.

null

Environment

Incentivize use of solar panels and renewable energy.

null

Environment

Monitor air pollution.

null

Environment

Increase transit options in communities of color.

null

Environment

Support flexible transportation options, particularly buses.

Flexible options could be rerouted in response to flooding or sea level rise.

Environment

Develop contingency plans for extreme weather events.

null

Technology

Form partnerships with tech industry to prepare for new modes (for public agencies).

null

Technology

Provide subsidies for advanced technologies.

One example would be to subsidize e-bikes.

Technology

Regulate or limit autonomous vehicles, particularly personal autonomous vehicles.

null

Technology

Support autonomous technology applications for transit.

null

Technology

Provide better transit to reduce the proliferation of personal electric vehicles.

null

Technology

Use electrified micromobility to support last-mile service to transit.

null

Technology

Regulate transportation network companies (TNCs).

Examples include requiring TNCs to share data or use public apps.

Technology

Create regulations to manage personal data.

null

Demographics

Increase transportation options in communities (including accessible options).

This strategy also addresses consumer preference and housing and land use issues.

Demographics

Apply universal and human-centered design principles when building infrastructure.

null

Demographics

Measure efforts to support aging-in-place.

null

Demographics

Keep sidewalks clear in the winter for seniors and people with disabilities.

null

Economy

Make transit responsive to changing remote work patterns.

This may include reducing focus on commute trips while considering a broader array of trip types.

Economy

Involve service, gig economy, and low wage workers and other forgotten workers in transportation decisions.

null

Economy

Increase transit service to areas that need it for economic participation.

null

Economy

Invest in areas that foster equitable growth and help maintain the state’s competitive edge.

null

Consumer Preferences

Close gaps in bicycle networks.

null

Consumer Preferences

Provide bicycle amenities, such as parking, at transit stations.

These amenities support people riding bicycles to make last-mile connections to transit.

Consumer Preferences

Promote the value of public transit.

Transit should be considered a public good.

Consumer Preferences

Make transit safe, comfortable, reliable, frequent, and fast.

null

Consumer Preferences

Use promotions to attract people to transit services.

null

Consumer Preferences

Invest in public health measures to mitigate concerns that may keep people from riding transit.

null

Housing and Land Use

Provide affordable housing with accessible transit.

null

Housing and Land Use

Use inclusionary zoning to create more affordable housing.

null

Housing and Land Use

Implement transit-oriented development.

null

Housing and Land Use

Provide more transportation options in town centers.

null

Housing and Land Use

Mitigate gentrification and displacement pressures that may result from transportation-related investments.

null

Housing and Land Use

Create 15-minute communities.

In 15-minute communities, residents can access all their daily needs within a 15-minute walk from home.

Housing and Land Use

Ensure neighborhood walkability for people of all ages.

null

Housing and Land Use

Support last-mile connections to transit stations and urban centers.

Examples include municipal bus circulators and bicycle infrastructure. Consider the street network an extension of the transit network to support these connections.

Policymaking

Consider the full life-cycle effects of transportation investments.

Transportation investments can have effects for decades.

Policymaking

Collaborate with other planners across sectors.

Examples of other sectors include housing, energy, and land use.

Policymaking

Rethink where transit needs and demands are.

null

Policymaking

Consider how gender may affect trip making.

null

Policymaking

Make decisions proactively, without expecting remote work or electric vehicle access to resolve transportation problems.

null

Policymaking

Support experimentation, innovation, systematic thinking, flexibility, and transparency when preparing for the future.

null

Policymaking

Promote public awareness and gather support for better transportation policies.

null

Policymaking

Adjust transportation funding formulas to redirect funding from highways to transit.

null

Policymaking

Use corporate impact fees to pay for transit improvements.

null

Policymaking

Fund transit improvements using regional ballot initiatives or programs like the Transportation and Climate Initiative.

null

Policymaking

Support regional governance.

null

Policymaking

Develop long-term funding models that promote transit system sustainability.

null

Policymaking

Relieve the MBTA of debt from the Big Dig (Central Artery) project.

null

Policymaking

Explore public private partnerships to improve transit.

null

Policymaking

Make transit more affordable to riders.

Examples include expanding low-cost pass products for commuters, establishing low-income fares, and exploring opportunities for free fares.

Other Transit Strategies

Increase funding for microtransit and bus routes.

Some of these routes could be operated by private companies.

Other Transit Strategies

Focus on updating existing systems or expanding transit coverage rather than building new systems.

null

Other Transit Strategies

Use high-capacity buses to provide support safe, fast, and reliable service.

null

Other Transit Strategies

Continue to develop dedicated bus lanes.

null

Other Transit Strategies

Continue to implement transit-signal-priority infrastructure in priority corridors.

null

Other Transit Strategies

Establish more through-connectivity in the bus system.

null

Other Transit Strategies

Support easier connections between buses and other modes.

null

Other Transit Strategies

Break down boundaries between regional transit authorities to improve connections.

null

Other Transit Strategies

Develop bus systems that are sensitive to changing topographies and amenities in the region.

null

Other Transit Strategies

Maintain ongoing dialogue with communities that depend on transit.  

These relationships may help restore riders’ faith in the system after service problems happen.

MBTA = Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority.

Source: Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization.

 

1 Jeremy Stapleton, How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning: Navigating an Uncertain Future (August 2020), page 8, accessed October 14, 2021.  https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/policy-focus-reports/how-use-exploratory-scenario-planning-xsp.

2 Diana Scearce and Katherine Fulton, What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits, (Global Business Network 2004), page 27, accessed October 14, 2021. https://community-wealth.org/content/what-if-art-scenario-thinking-nonprofits.