Travel Demand Model Results for Destination 2040 Needs Assessment

 

Table 1
Demographic Assumptions for the Boston Region MPO’s
2016 Baseline and 2040 No-Build Scenarios

Variable

2016 Baseline

2040 No-Build

Percent Change from 2016 to 2040

Population

3,178,600

3,524,500

10.9%

Households

1,282,100

1,490,600

16.3%

Household Size

2.4

2.3

-4.4%

Total Employment

1,890,700

1,999,400

5.7%

  Basic

357,100

302,700

-15.2%

  Retail

308,800

318,100

3.0%

  Service

1,224,700

1,378,600

12.6%

Households with Vehicles

 

 

 

  0 Vehicles

18%

20%

2%

  1 Vehicle

38%

39%

1%

  2 Vehicles

26%

24%

-2%

  3+ Vehicles

18%

16%

-2%

 

 

Table 2
Daily Person-Trip Activity
2016 Baseline and 2040 No-Build Scenarios

Variable

2016 Baseline

2040 No-Build

Percent Change from 2016 to 2040

Eastern Massachusetts

  

  

  

Person Trips

15,853,300

17,199,900

8.5%

  Auto

13,276,400

14,198,500

6.9%

  Transit

979,500

1,076,500

9.9%

  Non-Motorized

1,597,500 

1,924,900 

20.5%

Boston Region

 

 

 

Person Trips

10,991,400

12,012,000

9.3%

  Auto

8,824,500

9,451,400

7.1%

  Transit

821,100

908,800

10.7%

  Non-Motorized

1,345,700

1,651,800

22.7%

 

Table 3
Mode Choice
2016 Baseline and 2040 No-Build Scenarios

Variable

2016 Baseline

2040 No-Build

Eastern Massachusetts

 

 

Mode Share

100%

100%

  Auto Share

84%

83%

  Transit Share

6%

6%

  Non-Motorized Share

10%

11%

Boston Region

 

 

Mode Share

100%

100%

  Auto Share

80%

79%

  Transit Share

7%

8%

  Non-Motorized Share

12%

14%

 

 

 

Table 4
Daily Transit-Trip Activity
2016 Baseline and 2040 No-Build Scenarios

Variable

2016 Baseline

2040 No-Build

Percent Change from 2016 to 2040

Eastern Massachusetts

 

 

 

Transit Trips (linked)

979,500

1,076,500

9.9% 

Transit Trips (unlinked)

1,322,300

1,453,200

9.9% 

  Bus

351,600

363,100

3.3%

  Bus Rapid Transit

32,400

46,500

43.5%

     SL1, SL2, SL4, SL5, 746

32,400

37,770

16.6%

     SL3

0

8,730

 --

  Rapid Transit Lines

811,400

893,500

10.1%

      Blue Line

70,400

72,000

2.3%

      Orange Line

210,000

231,100

10.0%

      Red Line

290,000

318,100

9.7%

      Green Line

241,000

272,300

13.0%

  Commuter Rail

104,400

126,800

21.5%

  Ferry

6,400

7,000

9.4%

  Express Bus

16,100

16,400

1.9%

Average Transfer Rate

1.35

1.35

 

 

 

Table 5
Daily Highway-Trip Activity
2016 Baseline and 2040 No-Build Scenarios

Variable

2016 Baseline

2040 No-Build

Percent Change from 2016 to 2040

Eastern Massachusetts

 

 

 

Vehicle Assignment

11,775,400

12,627,300

7.2%

  Auto

10,134,400

10,845,400

7.0%

  Trucks

1,641,000

1,781,900

8.6%

Vehicle-Miles Traveled

120,970,700

128,310,300

6.1%

  Auto

108,508,000

113,314,300

4.4%

  Trucks

12,462,700

14,209,400

14.0%

Vehicle-Hours of Travel

4,289,100

4,666,100

8.8%

  Auto

3,843,300

4,125,200

7.3%

  Trucks

445,800

518,800

16.4%

Average Speed

28.2 

27.5 

-2.5%

  Auto

28.2

27.5

-2.7%

  Trucks

28.0

27.4

-2.0%

Average Auto Trip Length

10.7

10.4

-2.8%

 

 

 

 

Boston Region

 

 

 

Vehicle Assignment

7,813,800

8,377,600

7.2%

  Auto

6,616,800

7,077,600

7.0%

  Trucks

1,196,900

1,300,000

8.6%

Vehicle-Miles Traveled

76,519,600

86,050,100

12.5%

  Auto

68,457,800

71,085,500

3.8%

  Trucks

8,061,900

8,730,600

8.3%

Vehicle-Hours of Travel

3,002,400

3,524,800

17.4%

  Auto

2,683,100

2,847,600

6.1%

  Trucks

319,300

347,900

9.0%

Average Speed

25.5

24.4

-4.2%

  Auto

25.5

25.0

-2.2%

  Trucks

25.2

25.1

-0.6%

Average Auto Trip Length

10.3

10.0

-3.0%

 


 

Figure 1
Commuter Rail
2040 No-Build Scenario:  Parking Demand over Existing Capacity

Figure 1: Commuter Rail – 2040 No-Build Scenario:  Parking Demand over Existing Capacity
Figure 1 is a map of eastern Massachusetts that depicts the projected change in population for municipalities from 2016 to 2040. An overlay shows the active and proposed MBTA commuter rail lines. Another overlay shows the amount of demand (from low to very high) for parking at commuter rail stations, as well as stations with excess parking, for the period from 2016 to 2040.

Figure 2
Rapid Transit
2040 No-Build Scenario:  Parking Demand over Existing Capacity

Figure 2: Rapid Transit – 2040 No-Build Scenario:  Parking Demand over Existing Capacity
Figure 2 is a map of eastern Massachusetts that depicts the projected change in population for municipalities from 2016 to 2040. An overlay shows the active and proposed MBTA rapid transit lines. Another overlay shows the amount of demand (from low to very high) for parking at rapid transit stations, as well as stations with excess parking, for the period from 2016 to 2040.

Figure 3
Priority Bus Study Corridors in the Boston Region

Figure 3: Priority Bus Study Corridors in the Boston Region
Figure 3 is a map of the eastern part of the Boston region that depicts the location of existing and planned dedicated busways and rapid transit lines.

Figure 4
Change in Bus Run Times on High Ridership Routes
2016 Baseline and 2040 No-Build Scenarios

Figure 4: Change in Bus Run Times on High Ridership Routes; 2016 Baseline and 2040 No-Build Scenarios
Figure 4 is a map of the eastern part of the Boston region showing bus routes. A colored overlay shows the estimated change in bus run times, predicted by modeling, between the years 2016 and 2040. The volume of bus passengers on the routes, as of 2016, is indicated.